July 13, 2026Raoul Pal
Macro investor, analyst, and CEO of Real Vision. Personal views on macro, crypto, and AI. Also tracks at Real Vision (@RealVisionFinance).
301,000 subscribers301,000 followers
53
Fair81
Predictions
56
Evaluated
Six-Pillar Breakdown
Outcome Alignment
22%
38
Specificity Quality
20%
59
Consistency
15%
61
Transparency
15%
83
Accountability
15%
0
Calibration
13%
60
Strengths
- Strong: How often claims are backed by external sources
- Strong: Presence of sponsorship and paid promotion disclosures
- Strong: Clear disclosure of affiliate relationships and referral codes
Areas for Improvement
- Weak: Accuracy of specific price target predictions within stated timeframes
- Weak: Success rate on high-risk meme coin predictions
- Weak: Whether mistakes are acknowledged and corrected publicly
Top Assets Covered
BTC(56)ETH(8)SOL(3)SUI(3)DOGE(2)SIGN(1)STRIPE(1)XCHAIN(1)AMAZON(1)ZEC(1)
Claim Ledger — Sample Evidence
OPEN
ETH
sourcewhat's gonna be higher in a year's time? NVIDIA in terms of percentage gains or Ethereum, Solana, Suite, Bitcoin? It's very hard to argue that NVIDIA doubles from here
OPEN
BTC
sourceBitcoin still outperformed the Nasdaq since the liquidity low in 2022. And it will have its time in the rotation again
OPEN
FART
sourceThen the one came after it, Fartcoin came out of the same thing. That was 3 and a half.
OPEN
BTC
sourceI think it's fascinating because if you think of eToro's mission, which is opening the markets for everyone, I think what crypto did, it opened not the markets to be able to trade and invest only, but
OPEN
BTC
sourceI'm a big fan of everything related from from Bitcoin, to smart contracts and blockchain.
OPEN
SOL
sourceI think there's only room for three or four layer ones. We don't need anymore. And the race is who's gonna be the third with Solana and ETH.
OPEN
ETH
sourceI think there's only room for three or four layer ones. We don't need anymore. And the race is who's gonna be the third with Solana and ETH.
Showing 8 of 54 documented claims. Full ledger at athenaindex.com/influencers/RaoulGMI
Athena Index Score Guide
80–100
Excellent
Highly reliable
60–79
Good
Above average
40–59
Fair
Mixed results
0–39
Poor
Low credibility
Athena Index v1.24.0 · Credibility is behavioral, not performative
athenaindex.comThis score is calculated from 54 data points across 100+ factors in 6 pillars. Scores update as new evidence is collected. Full methodology at athenaindex.com/methodology.
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